Another Gleiwitz incident?
I didn't think President Bush was nuts enough to provoke a war with Iran, but a Washington Post story today that revealed he has authorized U.S. troops to kill or detain Iranian agents in Iraq left me with a queasy feeling.
I can't help but think back to the notorious Gleiwitz incident in August 1939, in which Nazi Germany manufactured a reason to invade Poland. German agents seized a radio station on the German-Polish border, killed a few people they had put in Polish uniforms, and then broadcast appeals for Poles to kill Germans in the former German territories given to Poland by the Treaty of Versailles after World War I. The loss of these territories, among them Posen, where my mother's grandfather, August Boettcher, emigrated from in the late 19th century, was a burning issue among rightist Germans. Not long afterward, World War II began.
Yes, yes, I know, Bush is no Hitler, but it is instructive to look back at how leaders and governments intent on going to war can create a reason to do so. Hitler rarely if ever felt a need to manufacture a reason to invade other countries after Poland--he just did it. But for Poland, he was still trying to put a false veneer of legality under international law on what was, in fact, naked aggression against a neighboring country. Bush has no credibility left when it comes to trusting him not to start a war for spurious reasons. Not after Iraq and the nowhere-to-be-found weapons of mass destruction.
Only a madman would start a major war to save his party and Presidency. But it just might work. Congress would be reluctant, at least right away, to impeach a President when troops are in active combat, as opposed to simply being shooting gallery ducks as they are in Iraq in too many instances. Iraq has gone past the point where many Americans care whether we win or lose; they just want to get out. Invading Iran could change that equation. Of course, Congress may have reinstitute the draft to have enough troops to sustain another, probably larger and bloodier war.
MoveOn.org and other groups will be leading an anti-Iraq War march tomorrow (Saturday) in Washington. It will be interesting to see how many people turn out, whether the numbers match the legions that protested the Vietnam War in the early 1970s. Go if you can. Wish them the best if you can't.