Do or die in South Carolina
South Carolina Democrats hold their primary today, and what had been expected to be a walk-away victory for Sen. Barack Obama in this heavily black state now seems to be in doubt. A victory, even a narrow one, by Sen. Hillary Clinton would strike a major blow to Obama's campaign. And that seems to be possible if not probable as voting begins.
Sen. John Edwards, who was born in South Carolina but now lives one state to the north, is expected to finish third. That will likely spell the effective end of Edwards' campaign--a shame, since his positions on the issues are the closest to my own. I suspect his plan is to stay in the race long enough to get some sort of promise from Clinton or Obama of either a top-level job in the next administration or positions on certain issues, in return for his withdrawal and support. Edwards would make a good, ticket-balancing vice president for either Clinton or Obama, but whether he would accept that role again is questionable. I would like to see him in a role where he can continue the fight for national health care and other progressive issues. It would be a shame if he just went back to being a trial lawyer, good as he was.
The overall race for the nomination is still, I stress, very unsettled, but it seems to be trending Clinton's way. She picked up the endorsement of the New York Times yesterday (McCain was endorsed as the best-of-a-bad-lot for the Republicans), and leads both in national polls and overall delegate count. But she's got to put Bill back in the closet. If Clinton wins with the perception that it's really a symbolic third term for him, she will have a hard time being taken seriously. Of course, for those of you in the far right who think that the Clinton's have a demonic "plan," for everything, maybe they'll separate once she moves into the White House.
I'm not among those who think it's unfair the Clinton's are double-teaming Obama. Politics ain't beanball, and what he's getting from the Clintons will pale in comparison to what the Republicans will throw at him if he wins the nomination. The primaries are a trial by fire, and if you're still standing at the end, you probably have what it takes to be President. There's more than a whiff of go-easy-on-him-because-he's-the-first-black in the criticism of Bill Clinton's attacks on Obama, even if that's never said outright.
Clinton is the establishment candidate here, in the mold of Hubert Humphrey or Edmund Muskie, while Obama is in the insurgent mold of Bobby Kennedy or George McGovern. If history is any teacher, an insurgent candidate can energize the electorate and even get the nomination, but has less of a chance of winning against the Republican. The danger is that if the establishment candidate wins the nomination after a bitter campaign, he or she will have a difficult time getting votes from the insurgent's passionate supporters. They might not vote Republican, but they might not vote at all. That's the danger I see in Bill Clinton's attacks on Obama. Fight, yes, but by the rules. The Clinton's have to leave room for reconciliation. Any Democratic candidate needs a huge black vote to win.