Running the numbers
If both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton remain in the race until the Democratic National Convention in Denver that opens Aug. 25, it appears almost certain, if current trends continue, that neither will have enough delegates to win the nomination on the first vote.
A Democratic candidate needs 2,025 delegate votes to be the nominee. Obama has 1,477 committed delegates or super-delegates (256 of the 712 super-delegates remain uncommitted) after the Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island primaries yesterday, with 170 delegates, mainly from Texas, still to be awarded. Clinton has 1,391. There are 552 delegates yet to be awarded from Wyoming (March 8), Mississippi (March 11), Pennsylvania, April 22, Indiana and North Carolina, May 6, West Virginia, May 13, Kentucky and Oregon, May 20, and Montana and South Dakota, June 3.
If Obama won all 552, he would have four more delegates than he needs to get the nomination. If Clinton did, she would not. But neither candidate is going to get all 552 because of the Democratic Party's proportional representation rule. If current trends continue, Obama would get about 300 of those and Clinton about 252.
So how does either candidate craft a victory and leave Denver as the nominee?
Obama might pick up John Edwards' 26 committed delegates once Edwards releases them. There have been rumors that Edwards has been promised the Attorney General job in an Obama administration, which would be nice. But that still doesn't put Obama over the top. So the deal-making begins in earnest.
Clinton will attempt to have Florida's 210 delegates and Michigan's 156 seated at the convention. Both states lost their delegates for defying the Democratic National Committee and moving up their primaries toward the head of the pack. Even if she succeeded, she wouldn't get all of the states' delegates because of the proportional representation rule. She was the only major candidate on the ballot in Michigan--Obama and Edwards withdrew in accordance with DNC desires-but there was a large "uncommitted" vote. So Clinton, too, won't likely be able to get the nomination without cutting deals.
Could this be the great, mythical "deadlocked" convention of yore? Only time will tell. What it does mean is that Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, which appeared to be sliding rapidly toward irrelevance, will be hotly contested by Clinton and Obama. We should be seeing them soon in Harrisburg.