Coasting toward the nomination
Barack Obama did better than I expected in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries yesterday, winning the former decisively and losing the latter to Hillary Clinton by just 22,000 votes. But it feels more like a victory by an exhausted competitor carried over the line by momentum than a breakaway sprint toward the finish line. It reminds me of the story about the first marathon runner in ancient Greece, who ran 26 miles to bring the news of victory. He gasped out, "Rejoice! We conquer!"--and then dropped dead.
Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic, but I believe Obama is still carrying the heavy weight of Rev. Wright on his back as he runs. Exit polls in Indiana found it was a significant issue among Hillary voters.
I agree with the Times reporter that many Hillary voters will return to the fold and vote for Obama in November if he gets the nomination. It will require some effort on his part. Just as Hillary has tried with some success to get past the reservations white men have about her, so must Obama find a way to make voters--some of whom are clearly uncomfortable voting for a black candidate--comfortable with him. While it's too late to put Rev. Wright into some political version of the extraordinary rendition program, Obama needs to lay down the law to his former pastor and remind him forcefully of the stakes involved. Wright needs to take a seven-month vacation to somewhere far, far away.
And lets not forget that John McCain appears ready, willing, and able to become the next George W. Bush. Yesterday at Wake Forest University he promised to appoint more Supreme Court justices like the rightwing ideologues Samuel Alito and John Roberts. The Bush millstone should be enough to get any Democrat elected this year. The Democrats have barely scratched the surface of McCain's past, and Obama will have the money to make sure voters know who their Republican candidate really is.
My big worry is that Bush will launch an October surprise--perhaps an attack on Iran--to make some voters move to McCain out of fear.